Why Does RPI Matter?

Kelly Kulina: Your Link to the Colleges

Why does the RPI matter? To get into the NCAA postseason, teams will either need to win their conference championship or earn an “at-large” bid. These at-large bids are awarded by an NCAA committee to teams that win a convincing number of games during the regular season. In the case of team sports, RPI is used to determine whether or not a “bubble” team should be given or denied an at-large bid to the tournament. Teams with wins over tough competition typically get the nod over teams with the same number of wins over easier competition.

For those of you who aren’t college basketball fans, Relative Power Index (RPI) is a measure of a team’s strength of schedule. So, teams are credited for playing a tougher schedule and penalized for playing a softer schedule.

To calculate a team’s RPI, the NCAA uses the following formula:

(0.25 * team winning percentage) + (0.50 * opponents’ winning percentage) + (0.25 * opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage)

As you can see, winning is only 25% of the total index, with much more emphasis being placed on teams’ opponents.

As with anything involved with the postseason, the RPI and its role in postseason selection does not come without controversy. Critics of the RPI point out that it compounds the disadvantage cold weather teams face against warm weather teams. Since they must spend the first three weeks of the season on the road, many cold weather teams will start with a losing record and play against other teams in their conference with losing records. This creates the compounding effect causing the RPI disadvantage. In fact, many lower tier teams in warm weather conferences will get an at-large nod over upper tier teams from cold weather conferences. If you take a look at the past few years’ College World Series participants and winners, you’ll see a major disparity between cold weather teams and warm weather teams.

This past November, Greg Van Zant, Head Coach at West Virginia University, proposed a change in the calculation of RPI. Rather than counting all wins equal, he suggested using an “adjusted winning percentage,” which awards 1.0 wins on a neutral site, 1.25 wins on the road and 0.833 wins at home. College basketball is currently using something similar, although they award 1.4 wins on the road and 0.6 wins at home. While this is still a while away from being presented formally to the Division I baseball committee, I’m looking forward to seeing how it is received by other coaches and the NCAA.

There’s no doubt in my mind that northern teams could use a helping hand when it comes to staying competitive nationally. At the same time, one thing won’t change: you still need to win the majority of your games!

Kelly Kulina is the Senior Vice President of College Recruiting at Baseball Factory. Kulina is a former Associate Head Coach and recruiting coordinator with the University of Maryland. As a former recruiting coordinator for ten years in the ACC, Kulina has vast contacts and is widely respected throughout the nation. From 1989 to 2000, Kulina coached 46 players who were selected in the MLB draft.

Walk That Way

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

Last week, we looked at what I think are some key stats for hitters. This week, let’s take a look at some key pitching stats.

By my count, 24 pitchers won 15 or more games during the 2008 Major League regular season. I should point out that I am not claiming this group to be the best pitchers, I only chose this group in order to point out statistical similarities among pitchers that were successful in 2008.

Much like with hitters, I like to look at walks and strikeouts.

WALKS (BB)

Among the group of 15+ game winners, only six averaged less than 2.0 walks per nine innings
(BB/9).

BB/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
1.37 – Cliff Lee – LHP, CLE
1.39 – Mike Mussina – RHP, NYY
1.43 – Roy Halladay – RHP, TOR
1.67 – Dan Haren – RHP, ARI
1.78 – Ricky Nolasco – RHP, FLA
1.93 – Ervin Santana – RHP, LAA

Ever heard of any of the following scouting terms?
* Challenged hitters
* Attacked the zone
* Strike thrower
* Control
* Command

Well, they all apply to the group above. It is pretty impressive to be able to go right after Major League hitters, issue as few bases on balls as they did, and still win over 15 games.

Among the same group, only three pitchers averaged more than 3.50 BB/9.

BB/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
3.59 – Chad Billingsley – RHP, LAD
4.27 – Edinson Volquez – RHP, CIN
5.05 – Daisuke Matsuzaka – RHP, BOS

In Game One of the ALCS against Tampa Bay, Daisuke Matsuzaka walked four and struck out nine in 7.0 innings of work. Though he gave away four free bases in only seven innings, he still gave up no runs and got the win in a 2-0 victory (so far, their only victory of the series).

On the same day, Chad Billingsley walked three and struck out five in a short 2.1 inning outing. The combination of free bases, extra base hits and RBI’s by the pitcher sealed his fate in an 8-5 loss to the Dodgers in Game Two of the NLCS.

The pitchers in this group had an approximate average BB/9 range of 2.5-3.0.

STRIKEOUTS (SO, or K)

Of the top 20 pitchers in strikeouts during the 2008 regular season:
* Only two had less than 10 wins
* 12 had 15 or more wins (representing half of the 15+ win group)
* Only three had losing records
* Only four had an ERA greater than 3.99

While strikeouts aren’t necessarily an indicator of a quality pitcher, they are a near sure fire indicator of quality stuff. The two usually work hand-in-hand, but not always.

Back to our group of pitchers with 15+ wins, among that group only four averaged over 9.0 strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9).

K/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
10.51 – Tim Lincecum – RHP, SF
9.46 – Edinson Volquez – RHP, CIN
9.39 – A.J. Burnett – RHP, TOR
9.01 – Chad Billingsley – RHP, LAD

Just to clarify, striking out at least one Major League hitter an inning on average is absurd…and requires impressive, near top of the scouting scale type stuff.

Among the same group, only three averaged less than 5.50 K/9.

K/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
5.36 – Kyle Lohse – RHP, STL
4.68 – Joe Saunders – LHP, LAA
4.09 – Aaron Cook – RHP, COL

The pitchers in this group had an approximate average K/9 range of 6.5-7.5.

SUMMARY

On average, this group walked about three and struck out about seven per nine innings. The walks are more telling than the strikeouts to me, a realistic goal for a young pitcher at any level should be to allow only one walk every three innings on average.

Strikeouts help, but I think too many times young pitchers already try to strikeout every hitter – and end up overthrowing, nibbling corners, and throwing too many off speed pitches to do so. All of this is taxing on a young arm, and usually results in high pitch counts and potentially short careers. Instead, I think young pitchers should focus on efficiency. Plus, if you can stay around the zone with your pitches you will get more calls from the umpire, and you will keep your fielders more involved and on their toes.


Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory. Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

Walk This Way

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

Let’s talk stats a little. First, let’s be clear. I don’t want to hear that you hit .738 during your 18 game season, or that you hit eight home runs over the 250 foot left field fence. That really doesn’t mean much to me. Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that you produced for your team but I still can’t really deduce much from those numbers.

I know what you’re thinking. What? Why not? I got hits in nearly three of every four at bats, and eight home runs means I am a power hitter. Maybe, I say.

Once again, I will use myself as an example. Over my last two years of high school, I hit over .400 with around six or seven home runs in 20 or so games. Our home park was a band box, as were most parks we played in. I don’t have the exact numbers, but over my career at NC State I hit somewhere in the neighborhood of .175. I may have scared .200 briefly once or twice, but it didn’t blink.

Quick review: pretty good high schools stats, couldn’t hit my way out of a paper bag in college…but wait, wasn’t it supposed to be the other way?

There are a couple of exceptions though. First, I struck out a lot in high school. Like many so called “power” hitters, it kind of came with the territory. I didn’t take a lot of pitches, instead choosing to take viscous hacks at anything near the strike zone. Worked OK at that level, but not when the pitching got better at the college level. A look at my strike out to walk ratio would have probably told a little better story.

Ideally, a hitter will walk more than he strikes out. Keep in mind I said “ideally.” It doesn’t happen that much. In fact, a quick look at the 2008 Major League Baseball stats found that only 14 players (with more than 40 walks) did it. They are listed below in order of best BB to SO ratio.

BB/SO – Name – Bats, Team
104/54 – Albert Pujols – R, STL
84/50 – Joe Mauer – L, MIN
87/52 – Brian Giles – L, SD
44/28 – Doug Mientkiewicz – L, PIT
90/61 – Chipper Jones – S, ATL
50/35 – Luis Castillo – S, NYM
73/58 – Ryan Theriot – R, CHC
61/50 – Todd Helton – L, COL
44/38 – Carlos Ruiz – R, PHI
50/45 – Jason Kendall – R, MIL
46/42 – Craig Counsell – L, MIL
90/83 – Russell Martin – R, LAD
58/55 – Jimmy Rollins – S, PHI
97/93 – Mark Teixeira – S, ATL/LAA (combined stats)

That is truly impressive to be able to walk more than you strike out at the Major League level. I am particularly impressed that a left-handed hitter could do this. There are not many left-handed hitters that can effectively handle left-handed pitching, and during a 162 game season there is simply no way to avoid that. Some other left handed hitters that were close to a 1:1 ratio:

79/80 – JD Drew – L, BOS
41/43 – Luis Gonzalez – L, FL
70/74 – David Ortiz – L, BOS

Albert Pujols walked nearly 2 times for every time he struck out. Mauer, Giles and Mientkiewicz (all left-handed hitters) walked over 1.5 times for each strike out. Just to illustrate the point, I did a little research to try and find the worst performances…

23/139 – Kevin Kouzmanoff – R, SD (roughly 6 strikeouts per walk)
25/142 – Carlos Gomez – R, MIN (over 5.5 strikeouts per walk)

As for the “Greek god of walks” (of Moneyball fame), Kevin Youkilis walked 62 times, struck out 108. Maybe it’s time for a new nickname?

Another player I expected to be among the best in this statistic: Ichiro. He was close, but didn’t make the grade. Walked 51 times, struck out 65.

So, understand that certain stats can be more telling than others. For me, walk to strikeout ratio is tops while batting average is at the bottom. As with most things, it just takes a little reading between the lines.



Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory. Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

Performance vs Ability

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

“Why are all the scouts here to watch ______ (insert that guy on your team’s name here)? I’m hitting .500, and he isn’t even hitting .300. They should be watching me instead.”

Answer? Tools (no, not those over there...)

Having a .500 batting average does not necessarily mean a hitter has exceptional hitting ability. Now, don’t get me wrong, that is pretty darn good…we’d certainly all like to have guys on our team hitting .500.

This is basically the performance versus ability debate. I don’t have any interest in boring you with this, you’ve heard it before I'm sure. Instead, we’ll make it as simple as it really is. Tools are the ability, production is the performance. Ideally we would have both, but that doesn’t happen very often. There, easy as that. Make sense?

Though the ability to produce in games is the ultimate goal, the ability to produce at the high school level alone is not a sure sign that a player can or will produce at the college level (and certainly not at the professional level).

There is simply no way to account for a standard level of competition at the high school level. Since there is no baseline, there is really no way to compare players using most statistics (like batting average and earned run average). Thus, arguments based on these numbers are not even worth having.

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TODAY’S DOUBLE PLAY
Two more baseball pet peeves (I have lots...)

1. When outfielders throw to the wrong base, don’t know where to throw it, or throw over cutoff men.
Come on, let’s be honest here. All you really have to do as an outfielder is listen, and you’ll know where to go with the ball. Sure, it helps to have some feel for the game – that is always ideal – but in most cases, just throw it to the cutoff man. Trust me, he is there for a reason. Oh, and one more thing. On a sac fly (or any other do or die type throw) if you can’t carry it there in the air (most guys can’t, it’s OK), at least give your teammate a long hop to work with.

2. Striking out looking on fastballs away.
Maybe it’s just how I was taught, but I just don’t get how it happens so often. I know there are differing opinions, but I am of the theory that it is best to “look away, react in”…ESPECIALLY WITH TWO STRIKES. In other words, make sure you can handle pitches on the outer half, and simply react and try to fight off pitchers on the inner half.

A two strike approach should also involve choking up on the bat, and widening the stance – both help to shorten and simplify the stroke, making it easier to simply put the ball in play. If a pitcher can run a fastball across the inside corner and freeze me that way, I’ll tip my cap and have a seat – but seriously, think about it, there are just not that many pitchers that pitch inside AT ALL, let alone with two strikes. If I am looking away, it allows me to track the ball longer – since I am trying to hit the ball out of the back of the strike zone. That way, I have time to recognize spin on a breaking ball or at least fight off a pitch I think has a chance to be called a strike.
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But if not stats, then what else do we have to compare players with?

Answer? (Hint: same as last time) Tools.

I know what you’re thinking…“but what about that guy on my team that hits balls over the lights in batting practice? He hasn’t done much of anything in games this season, but scouts and coaches are always coming to see him play. Same with the pitcher on our team that throws 90. He doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, and gives up quite a few runs in each outing. If they can’t help our team win games, why would scouts and coaches want them for theirs?”

Answer: (Seeing a pattern yet? If not you will if you read the next word) Tools.

There simply are not that many guys walking around that can hit balls over the lights. Tools like that are rare, and give players potential to impact games in a big way.

For example, if that light tower power ever ends up in the same package with a good swing and hitting approach, that player has potential to hit a lot of home runs in the Major Leagues.

Back to production (we switched to that term instead of performance earlier) one last time before we wrap up. It is important to note that the ability to play the game is considered particularly important to most college recruiters (compared to professional scouts, who are looking more into the future). They do not have the luxury of letting players learn how to use their tools in the minor leagues before calling them up into action.

So, while we cannot deny production and performance as ideal for any player, ultimately the players with more in the tool box are always going to be scouted more. They may look a little crude now, and maybe they aren’t having all that much success right now, but those big tools give them more potential to play the game longer and against better players in the long run.

Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory.

Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.