Walk That Way

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

Last week, we looked at what I think are some key stats for hitters. This week, let’s take a look at some key pitching stats.

By my count, 24 pitchers won 15 or more games during the 2008 Major League regular season. I should point out that I am not claiming this group to be the best pitchers, I only chose this group in order to point out statistical similarities among pitchers that were successful in 2008.

Much like with hitters, I like to look at walks and strikeouts.

WALKS (BB)

Among the group of 15+ game winners, only six averaged less than 2.0 walks per nine innings
(BB/9).

BB/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
1.37 – Cliff Lee – LHP, CLE
1.39 – Mike Mussina – RHP, NYY
1.43 – Roy Halladay – RHP, TOR
1.67 – Dan Haren – RHP, ARI
1.78 – Ricky Nolasco – RHP, FLA
1.93 – Ervin Santana – RHP, LAA

Ever heard of any of the following scouting terms?
* Challenged hitters
* Attacked the zone
* Strike thrower
* Control
* Command

Well, they all apply to the group above. It is pretty impressive to be able to go right after Major League hitters, issue as few bases on balls as they did, and still win over 15 games.

Among the same group, only three pitchers averaged more than 3.50 BB/9.

BB/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
3.59 – Chad Billingsley – RHP, LAD
4.27 – Edinson Volquez – RHP, CIN
5.05 – Daisuke Matsuzaka – RHP, BOS

In Game One of the ALCS against Tampa Bay, Daisuke Matsuzaka walked four and struck out nine in 7.0 innings of work. Though he gave away four free bases in only seven innings, he still gave up no runs and got the win in a 2-0 victory (so far, their only victory of the series).

On the same day, Chad Billingsley walked three and struck out five in a short 2.1 inning outing. The combination of free bases, extra base hits and RBI’s by the pitcher sealed his fate in an 8-5 loss to the Dodgers in Game Two of the NLCS.

The pitchers in this group had an approximate average BB/9 range of 2.5-3.0.

STRIKEOUTS (SO, or K)

Of the top 20 pitchers in strikeouts during the 2008 regular season:
* Only two had less than 10 wins
* 12 had 15 or more wins (representing half of the 15+ win group)
* Only three had losing records
* Only four had an ERA greater than 3.99

While strikeouts aren’t necessarily an indicator of a quality pitcher, they are a near sure fire indicator of quality stuff. The two usually work hand-in-hand, but not always.

Back to our group of pitchers with 15+ wins, among that group only four averaged over 9.0 strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9).

K/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
10.51 – Tim Lincecum – RHP, SF
9.46 – Edinson Volquez – RHP, CIN
9.39 – A.J. Burnett – RHP, TOR
9.01 – Chad Billingsley – RHP, LAD

Just to clarify, striking out at least one Major League hitter an inning on average is absurd…and requires impressive, near top of the scouting scale type stuff.

Among the same group, only three averaged less than 5.50 K/9.

K/9 – Pitcher – Position, Team
5.36 – Kyle Lohse – RHP, STL
4.68 – Joe Saunders – LHP, LAA
4.09 – Aaron Cook – RHP, COL

The pitchers in this group had an approximate average K/9 range of 6.5-7.5.

SUMMARY

On average, this group walked about three and struck out about seven per nine innings. The walks are more telling than the strikeouts to me, a realistic goal for a young pitcher at any level should be to allow only one walk every three innings on average.

Strikeouts help, but I think too many times young pitchers already try to strikeout every hitter – and end up overthrowing, nibbling corners, and throwing too many off speed pitches to do so. All of this is taxing on a young arm, and usually results in high pitch counts and potentially short careers. Instead, I think young pitchers should focus on efficiency. Plus, if you can stay around the zone with your pitches you will get more calls from the umpire, and you will keep your fielders more involved and on their toes.


Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory. Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

Walk This Way

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

Let’s talk stats a little. First, let’s be clear. I don’t want to hear that you hit .738 during your 18 game season, or that you hit eight home runs over the 250 foot left field fence. That really doesn’t mean much to me. Don’t get me wrong, it’s great that you produced for your team but I still can’t really deduce much from those numbers.

I know what you’re thinking. What? Why not? I got hits in nearly three of every four at bats, and eight home runs means I am a power hitter. Maybe, I say.

Once again, I will use myself as an example. Over my last two years of high school, I hit over .400 with around six or seven home runs in 20 or so games. Our home park was a band box, as were most parks we played in. I don’t have the exact numbers, but over my career at NC State I hit somewhere in the neighborhood of .175. I may have scared .200 briefly once or twice, but it didn’t blink.

Quick review: pretty good high schools stats, couldn’t hit my way out of a paper bag in college…but wait, wasn’t it supposed to be the other way?

There are a couple of exceptions though. First, I struck out a lot in high school. Like many so called “power” hitters, it kind of came with the territory. I didn’t take a lot of pitches, instead choosing to take viscous hacks at anything near the strike zone. Worked OK at that level, but not when the pitching got better at the college level. A look at my strike out to walk ratio would have probably told a little better story.

Ideally, a hitter will walk more than he strikes out. Keep in mind I said “ideally.” It doesn’t happen that much. In fact, a quick look at the 2008 Major League Baseball stats found that only 14 players (with more than 40 walks) did it. They are listed below in order of best BB to SO ratio.

BB/SO – Name – Bats, Team
104/54 – Albert Pujols – R, STL
84/50 – Joe Mauer – L, MIN
87/52 – Brian Giles – L, SD
44/28 – Doug Mientkiewicz – L, PIT
90/61 – Chipper Jones – S, ATL
50/35 – Luis Castillo – S, NYM
73/58 – Ryan Theriot – R, CHC
61/50 – Todd Helton – L, COL
44/38 – Carlos Ruiz – R, PHI
50/45 – Jason Kendall – R, MIL
46/42 – Craig Counsell – L, MIL
90/83 – Russell Martin – R, LAD
58/55 – Jimmy Rollins – S, PHI
97/93 – Mark Teixeira – S, ATL/LAA (combined stats)

That is truly impressive to be able to walk more than you strike out at the Major League level. I am particularly impressed that a left-handed hitter could do this. There are not many left-handed hitters that can effectively handle left-handed pitching, and during a 162 game season there is simply no way to avoid that. Some other left handed hitters that were close to a 1:1 ratio:

79/80 – JD Drew – L, BOS
41/43 – Luis Gonzalez – L, FL
70/74 – David Ortiz – L, BOS

Albert Pujols walked nearly 2 times for every time he struck out. Mauer, Giles and Mientkiewicz (all left-handed hitters) walked over 1.5 times for each strike out. Just to illustrate the point, I did a little research to try and find the worst performances…

23/139 – Kevin Kouzmanoff – R, SD (roughly 6 strikeouts per walk)
25/142 – Carlos Gomez – R, MIN (over 5.5 strikeouts per walk)

As for the “Greek god of walks” (of Moneyball fame), Kevin Youkilis walked 62 times, struck out 108. Maybe it’s time for a new nickname?

Another player I expected to be among the best in this statistic: Ichiro. He was close, but didn’t make the grade. Walked 51 times, struck out 65.

So, understand that certain stats can be more telling than others. For me, walk to strikeout ratio is tops while batting average is at the bottom. As with most things, it just takes a little reading between the lines.



Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory. Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

Draft Excitment

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

The draft is here! On Thursday, June 5, Major League Baseball will conduct its annual amateur draft. There are approximately 500,000 high school and 40,000 college baseball players, but only 1,500 players will be selected during the two days and 50 rounds of the draft. High school and college standouts will have their dreams realized as they begin their professional career in the minor leagues.

The experts have spent months and even years talking about the top players in the draft. They talk about tools guys. Immediate impact players. Players with signability issues. Can’t miss prospects. And even sleepers.

There are “old school” scouts that go on feel and instinct. “New school” statisticians that have read Moneyball at least 50 times. Big league clubs that lean toward college prospects they feel have a quicker trip to the Majors. Even Crosscheckers that prefer raw high school players with tools that they can mold through player development at the minor league level.

These players are analyzed and criticized on a daily basis. Broken down to the nth degree. Their intangibles are questioned. Can this 18-year-old kid handle the pressure? Is he going to get into too much trouble off the field? Will his curveball develop into an out pitch? Can he convert his 6.3 60-yard dash speed into 60 stolen bases?

These questions have to be considered, as do every other aspect of the player’s ability and character. Baseball is a business. These teams are making an investment. Just like buying stock, you need to do your homework. You can’t give a player a $4 Million signing bonus only to have him toil away in the minor leagues and never make it. The GM or Scouting Director that made that decision is probably not working with the team anymore. How many times do you hear about general managers on the hot seat? It happens daily for Brian Cashman.

This is an in-exact science. While it isn’t a shot in the dark, it also isn’t a 100% lock either. It is this uncertainty that makes the draft so exciting. Did my favorite team just draft the next Ken Griffey, Jr.? Or did they just select the next Matt Anderson? Who? Exactly! There goes the farm (system)!

For draft insight from our own expert, check out Steve Bernhardt’s interview at Nationals Park on the MLB.com Draft Preview Show.

How Do Measurables Measure Up?

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

In my nearly eight years of scouting, I have heard the most questions about my evaluation of…well, as it turns out…my own ability to use a stopwatch. Weird, because I think I’m pretty good at it. I even changed my grip years ago, so I could use my pointer finger (instead of my thumb) for more accurate starting and stopping. Shouldn’t I get some credit for that?

Maybe it’s because anybody can go out and buy a stopwatch, or a radar gun for that matter (and now they even have stopwatches that supposedly can give you pitch velocity somehow), and go to the ballpark and start timing everything. At just about every event I have ever scouted, I can look up in the stands and see dads timing the 60-yard dash or catchers throwing to second base. I don’t have a problem with that at all, but I guess I just don’t fully understand the fascination with those numbers.

Question: We all know that a sub seven second 60-yard dash is desirable, but what is a desirable home to first time? (Answer at bottom)
Maybe it’s because running times, like release times and radar velocities, allow for the amount of improvement made to be actually measured. Simply run it, time it, work on it, run it and time it again, do a little math (or use a calculator, sometimes subtracting those seconds can be tough…) and see if you got better.

Today’s Double Play
Players with the most impressive combination of measurables (run times, release times & radar velocities) at the 2008 Under Armour Pre-season All America Tournament.

1. Matt Ramsey – C/RHP, R/R, 5-11/180, Farragut HS (Knoxville, TN), 2008 graduate
Ran 6.73 in the 60-yard dash, best pop time was 1.77, hit 96 mph on the radar gun

2. Josh Elander – C, R/R, 6-0/190, Round Rock HS (Round Rock, TX), 2009 graduate
Ran 6.78 in the 60-yard dash, best pop time was 1.87, hit 91 mph on the radar gun

Maybe it’s because people perceive the 60-yard dash and catcher release times to have more value than they really do. Both are just measurements that, along with other factors, play a role in getting to an eventual tool grade. In the case of the 60, it still has to be determined what kind of reactions a player has – not to mention his ability to get out of the box, change directions, and what kind of feel for the game he has – before a run grade can be given. As for catcher release times and throwing ability behind the plate in general, neither really matters until it is determined that the player has a chance to catch and work with pitchers – more games will be won that way than by throwing out would be base stealers.

In any case, my hope is for people to realize that a baseball player is made up of a lot of components. With the exception of hitting skills or power potential , rarely will just one or two components make or break a player – especially in a short look setting, like a workout. I would urge people to try and understand more about what tools and abilities are important for players at different positions, and to try and focus improvements on those areas that will make the biggest difference for them.

For example, running ability is at the bottom of the tool importance list for a first baseman. While there is nothing wrong with trying to improve speed, any advances for players at this position will do little to nothing for their overall value as a prospect. In this case, hitting ability and power potential are at the top of the tool importance list – allowing gains here to directly impact overall value as a prospect.

If in doubt, just think of tool importance like this: bats on the corners (1B, 3B, LF, RF), gloves up the middle (C, SS, 2B, CF). Opinions will certainly vary on this, but the highest I could get running ability at any position would be in center field – where it ranks third most important for me, behind fielding ability and hitting ability.

Answer: Sub 4.3 home to first times for left handed hitters, and sub 4.4 for right handers, are in the same category with around 6.9 60-yard dash times. All of these times would fall pretty much into the “near average” category by Major League standards, or around a 45 on the 20-80 scouting scale.

Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory.

Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.