Draft Excitment

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

The draft is here! On Thursday, June 5, Major League Baseball will conduct its annual amateur draft. There are approximately 500,000 high school and 40,000 college baseball players, but only 1,500 players will be selected during the two days and 50 rounds of the draft. High school and college standouts will have their dreams realized as they begin their professional career in the minor leagues.

The experts have spent months and even years talking about the top players in the draft. They talk about tools guys. Immediate impact players. Players with signability issues. Can’t miss prospects. And even sleepers.

There are “old school” scouts that go on feel and instinct. “New school” statisticians that have read Moneyball at least 50 times. Big league clubs that lean toward college prospects they feel have a quicker trip to the Majors. Even Crosscheckers that prefer raw high school players with tools that they can mold through player development at the minor league level.

These players are analyzed and criticized on a daily basis. Broken down to the nth degree. Their intangibles are questioned. Can this 18-year-old kid handle the pressure? Is he going to get into too much trouble off the field? Will his curveball develop into an out pitch? Can he convert his 6.3 60-yard dash speed into 60 stolen bases?

These questions have to be considered, as do every other aspect of the player’s ability and character. Baseball is a business. These teams are making an investment. Just like buying stock, you need to do your homework. You can’t give a player a $4 Million signing bonus only to have him toil away in the minor leagues and never make it. The GM or Scouting Director that made that decision is probably not working with the team anymore. How many times do you hear about general managers on the hot seat? It happens daily for Brian Cashman.

This is an in-exact science. While it isn’t a shot in the dark, it also isn’t a 100% lock either. It is this uncertainty that makes the draft so exciting. Did my favorite team just draft the next Ken Griffey, Jr.? Or did they just select the next Matt Anderson? Who? Exactly! There goes the farm (system)!

For draft insight from our own expert, check out Steve Bernhardt’s interview at Nationals Park on the MLB.com Draft Preview Show.

How Do Measurables Measure Up?

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

In my nearly eight years of scouting, I have heard the most questions about my evaluation of…well, as it turns out…my own ability to use a stopwatch. Weird, because I think I’m pretty good at it. I even changed my grip years ago, so I could use my pointer finger (instead of my thumb) for more accurate starting and stopping. Shouldn’t I get some credit for that?

Maybe it’s because anybody can go out and buy a stopwatch, or a radar gun for that matter (and now they even have stopwatches that supposedly can give you pitch velocity somehow), and go to the ballpark and start timing everything. At just about every event I have ever scouted, I can look up in the stands and see dads timing the 60-yard dash or catchers throwing to second base. I don’t have a problem with that at all, but I guess I just don’t fully understand the fascination with those numbers.

Question: We all know that a sub seven second 60-yard dash is desirable, but what is a desirable home to first time? (Answer at bottom)
Maybe it’s because running times, like release times and radar velocities, allow for the amount of improvement made to be actually measured. Simply run it, time it, work on it, run it and time it again, do a little math (or use a calculator, sometimes subtracting those seconds can be tough…) and see if you got better.

Today’s Double Play
Players with the most impressive combination of measurables (run times, release times & radar velocities) at the 2008 Under Armour Pre-season All America Tournament.

1. Matt Ramsey – C/RHP, R/R, 5-11/180, Farragut HS (Knoxville, TN), 2008 graduate
Ran 6.73 in the 60-yard dash, best pop time was 1.77, hit 96 mph on the radar gun

2. Josh Elander – C, R/R, 6-0/190, Round Rock HS (Round Rock, TX), 2009 graduate
Ran 6.78 in the 60-yard dash, best pop time was 1.87, hit 91 mph on the radar gun

Maybe it’s because people perceive the 60-yard dash and catcher release times to have more value than they really do. Both are just measurements that, along with other factors, play a role in getting to an eventual tool grade. In the case of the 60, it still has to be determined what kind of reactions a player has – not to mention his ability to get out of the box, change directions, and what kind of feel for the game he has – before a run grade can be given. As for catcher release times and throwing ability behind the plate in general, neither really matters until it is determined that the player has a chance to catch and work with pitchers – more games will be won that way than by throwing out would be base stealers.

In any case, my hope is for people to realize that a baseball player is made up of a lot of components. With the exception of hitting skills or power potential , rarely will just one or two components make or break a player – especially in a short look setting, like a workout. I would urge people to try and understand more about what tools and abilities are important for players at different positions, and to try and focus improvements on those areas that will make the biggest difference for them.

For example, running ability is at the bottom of the tool importance list for a first baseman. While there is nothing wrong with trying to improve speed, any advances for players at this position will do little to nothing for their overall value as a prospect. In this case, hitting ability and power potential are at the top of the tool importance list – allowing gains here to directly impact overall value as a prospect.

If in doubt, just think of tool importance like this: bats on the corners (1B, 3B, LF, RF), gloves up the middle (C, SS, 2B, CF). Opinions will certainly vary on this, but the highest I could get running ability at any position would be in center field – where it ranks third most important for me, behind fielding ability and hitting ability.

Answer: Sub 4.3 home to first times for left handed hitters, and sub 4.4 for right handers, are in the same category with around 6.9 60-yard dash times. All of these times would fall pretty much into the “near average” category by Major League standards, or around a 45 on the 20-80 scouting scale.

Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory.

Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

Doing the Little Things to Pay Big Dividends

Kelly Kulina: Your Link to the Colleges

The college recruiting process has long been considered a marathon. There are a great deal of variables in the equation for both college and pro teams; however, not only are coaches and scouts looking at bat speed, raw power and arm strength, but they’re also assessing a player’s mental makeup. It is important to realize that when a coach or scout is looking at a field of equally talented players, the tiniest of differences can separate the prospects from the signed athlete.

Many players don’t realize that they are being evaluated long before the first pitch. As a coach making a recruiting trip to high school games, I made it a point of arriving early, not only to beat the traffic, but to get there with plenty of time to take in the scene. I found that a lawn chair near the fence was the best place to “eye down” a player as they got off the bus. Whether or not he’s half-dressed, horsing around with teammates or interrupting his warm-up to steal a few minutes with his girlfriend are all considered in separating players even before they’ve taken the field.

Evaluating prospective student-athletes during a game also goes beyond performance and tools. Baseball is a game of streaks, both hot and cold. HOW a player approaches every at-bat and every routine play and HOW a player handles failure or success is very important to college coaches. Does he understand how to play the game hard and provide an example of solid leadership on the field to younger players?

The manner in which a players deals with a good or bad performance can speak a great deal about his attitude. Is he hanging his head? Is he kicking gravel on the way to the car and muttering under his breath? I personally tried to introduce myself to players I came to see as they left. A firm handshake and solid eye contact will prove to be one of the best first impressions a prospective student-athlete can ever make with a coach. Players that are both humble and appreciative of the attention are the ones that make the most of this interview. Don’t confuse cockiness for confidence!

Furthermore, a fair warning to parents in the stands: coaches are not just evaluating the players on the field, they’re evaluating you, too! It’s astonishing how much information is passed around via bleacher gossip, and coaches are always listening. Be wary of what you volunteer not only about your son, but about other players, as well! I must also strongly caution any parent against seeking out coaches that come out to games. Rather than trying to actively market your future student-athlete, consider that the coaches are on the clock and there to do a job. The more time they spend looking at family scrapbooks, the less time they have to evaluate your son!

The thing to take away: you never know who’s going to have their ear to the ground and their eye on your game! Everyday we are amazed how things can come full circle in life. It’s no different in the college recruiting process! The baseball fraternity is a very close-knit group. We talk. Word spreads fast and far. And it’s the little things that always come around to tip the scale.

Kelly Kulina is currently the Senior Vice President of the Exclusive Program.

Kulina is a former Associate Head Coach and recruiting coordinator with the University of Maryland. As a former recruiting coordinator for ten years in the ACC, Kulina has vast contacts and is widely respected throughout the nation. From 1989 to 2000, Kulina coached 46 players who were selected in the MLB draft.