2009 Predictions

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

The season is finally here! Last year, I waited until May to make my predictions, and while I was right on with the Rays, part of me feels like I cheated. So, this year, why wait, let’s get right to the predictions:

American League East
1.Boston Red Sox
2.New York Yankees (wild card)
3.Tampa Bay Rays
4.Baltimore Orioles
5.Toronto Blue Jays

The Yankees spent $423.5 million this offseason on three players:CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira, but the Red Sox still have more depth than the Yanks and down the stretch, this will be key.Alex Rodriguez is starting the season on the DL and who knows how his hip will respond when he returns. Add in the pressure he’ll face based on his offseason issues and there may be too many distractions for him to get back to MVP form in 2009. Don’t overlook the addition of Takashi Saito to the Red Sox bullpen and John Smoltz, their ace in the hole who should return this summer. Both teams will make the playoffs, but I expect the Red Sox to win the division.

While I would love to see the Rays make another run, they aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this year. They have the talent to do it again, but do they have any magic left under their hats? In another division, they are probably the favorites, but this is the AL East. They can’t let David Price spend too much time in the minors if they are going to compete. The Orioles will likely have a 12^th consecutive losing season, but they are moving in the right direction with their young talented players. This will be a rebuilding year for the Blue Jays as well.

American League Central
1.Cleveland Indians
2.Minnesota Twins
3.Chicago White Sox
4.Detroit Tigers
5.Kansas City Royals

The main difference between the 2008 Indians and the 2009 team is health. Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Fausto Carmona all appear to be healthy entering the season. They finished the 2008 season by winning 43 of their last 71 games, mainly based on the performance of Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore. Those two players can’t do it on their own, and this year, they shouldn’t have to. The addition of Mark DeRosa will help push the Indians back into the playoffs.

The Twins should compete again in 2009 and they always seem to find a way to be in the mix. Francisco Liriano is my sleeper pick to win the AL Cy Young, but I’m not sold on Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey and the rest of the Twins rotation.

There aren’t that many differences between the White Sox team that won the division last year and this year’s squad, except for age. 32, 33, 35, 35, 37 and 39. Those are the opening day ages of A.J. Pierzynski, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Bartolo Colon, Jose Contreras and Jim Thome; all players that will be counted on heavily by the White Sox. Expect this year’s team to look older and play older.

I wish I had more to say about the Tigers and Royals, but really, so do they. Keep a close eye on Rick Porcello, a RHP for the Tigers. Selected in the first round of the 2007 draft, Porcello was a participant in the 2006 Cape Cod High School Classic, powered by Baseball Factory.

American League West
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Oakland Athletics
4. Seattle Mariners

I really wanted to pick the Rangers to win the west. In the end, even though the Angels starting rotation is in shambles based on injuries, I still felt they were the better team in the long run. John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar are injured, but all should be back in the rotation within a few months. The Rangers are going to hit…a lot, but that just isn’t enough. I like them to put a scare into the Angels and keep the race close until September, but I just don’t think they have enough to seal the deal.

As for the Athletics, they have improved their offense dramatically by adding Matt Holliday, Orlando Cabrera, Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra. If they can get some production out of their rotation they may be able to compete in the West, but there are too many question marks in their rotation and bullpen.

I’m excited to see Ken Griffey, Jr. back in Seattle. I don’t expect him to produce like the old Junior Griffey, but it is a nice way for him to end his Hall of Fame career back where it started. Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard should both have bounce back years, but it isn’t enough for this rebuilding team.

Next time we’ll take a look at the National League.

Jason Budden is the Vice President of Operations and Marketing at Baseball Factory. Jason joined the Baseball Factory in 1997 while still a junior in high school. After going through the Baseball Factory's college recruiting program he was placed at Johns Hopkins University where he played two years of college baseball before graduating with a degree in Economics. After working part-time at the Factory throughout college, Jason joined the team as a full-time employee in January 2002 when he was promoted to Director of Marketing. He currently oversees all marketing projects and sponsorship opportunities at Baseball Factory. He is also in charge of development and marketing for Baseball University, the leader in online baseball education and a division of Baseball Factory.

Down the Stretch They Come

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

With a little over 20 games remaining in the Major League Baseball season, let's take a look at the races, especially those that are heating up:

American League East
After losing two of three against the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays are only 3.5 games ahead of the Red Sox. While they are looking very good to make the playoffs, a division title could be a huge difference maker when the playoffs start. While the division winner will draw either the White Sox or the Twins, the Wild Card team is going to have to face the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (I still have a tough time not calling them just Anaheim). I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather have to face Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez than John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders.

The Yankees are 11 back of the Rays in the division and 7.5 games back of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. Stranger things have happened (see last year’s run by the Clint Hurdle and the Rockies), but let’s just think about it this way: If the Red Sox finished the season losing 15 of their final 23 games, the Yankees would need to go 16-6 down the stretch to make the playoffs. If the Red Sox go 11-12, the Yankees would have to go 19-3.

American League Central
I’ll be interested to see how many Twins fans vote for Senator John McCain this fall in the presidential election, if they end up missing out on the playoffs. McCain (image below and to the left) was seen waiving good bye to the Twins' playoff chances. I jest, but the Twins were sent packing on a 14-game road trip because of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, MN. They finished 5-9 on the road trip and may have lost the momentum needed to overtake the White Sox, who have a 1.5 game lead in the AL Central. The Twins schedule down the stretch looks promising with home series against Detroit, Kansas City (six games) and the White Sox in late September. They do however have to hit the road again including a three game series in Cleveland (18-7 over their last 25 games) and a four game series in Tampa Bay.

The White Sox host the Angels, Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland, while making trips to New York, Kansas City, and Minnesota. Neither team seems to have an edge, and with only 1.5 games separating the teams, that late series in Minnesota could determine the division title.

American League West
The Angels had this locked up in May. Seriously, I’m not kidding. At this point they hold a slim, 17 game lead over the Rangers.

American League Wild Card
We talked about what the Yankees would need to do to catch the Red Sox, but what about the Twins. They have a bit better chance, but again, with a 5.5 game lead over the Twins the Sox would basically need to collapse. It could happen, but don’t count on it.

National League East
Things are eerily similar to last year. The Mets have a lead and are growing it, but injuries to Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Billy Wagner are definitely a cause for concern. Can the Mets hold on? They’ve won four in a row and seven of their last 10, but the Phillies are very much alive only three games out of the lead. This weekend will be key as the Phillies make their last ever visit to Shea Stadium. This is the last time the Mets and Phillies will square off during the season, so this could determine the winner of the division.

National League Central
The Cubs have lost five in a row, but still have a five game lead in the NL Central. It definitely helps that the Brewers have lost four in a row. With Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden both missing starts, Cubs fans are a bit on edge, but they should make the playoffs. The Cubs and Brewers will face off six times down the stretch, including the final series of the regular season in Milwaukee, giving the Brewers a chance at overtaking the division title.

National League West
Arizona holds a 1.5 game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers going into their three game weekend series that starts tonight in LA. This is the last time the Diamondbacks and Dodgers will face off this season and it will likely provide one team with momentum for the remainder of September. However, the Rockies are still lurking, only six games back of Arizona. They have nine games left against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers and considering the run they made in 2007, nothing is out of the question.

National League Wild Card
Milwaukee is currently sitting four games up on Philly, five on St. Louis and six on Houston. The Brewers will head to Philadelphia in a week for a four game series. If they are still only up by four, this could get interesting. St. Louis has put together a magical season and they will need some of that magic in order to get into the playoffs. Houston was written off for dead earlier this summer but they have gone 20-7 over their past 27 games and have put themselves back in the Wild Card Race. Jumping over three teams during the final three weeks of the season will be a challenge, but 16 of their final 22 games are against teams with losing records, so don’t count them out.

Since I love to make predictions:

AL East – Boston Red Sox
AL Central – Chicago White Sox
AL West – Anaheim
AL Wild Card – Tampa Bay Rays

NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card – Milwaukee Brewers


Jason Budden is the Vice President of Operations and Marketing at Baseball Factory. Jason joined the Baseball Factory in 1997 while still a junior in high school. After going through the Baseball Factory's college recruiting program he was placed at Johns Hopkins University where he played two years of college baseball before graduating with a degree in Economics. After working part-time at the Factory throughout college, Jason joined the team as a full-time employee in January 2002 when he was promoted to Director of Marketing. He currently oversees all marketing projects and sponsorship opportunities at Baseball Factory. He is also in charge of development and marketing for Baseball University, the leader in online baseball education and a division of Baseball Factory.

Get the Trophies and Banners Ready – Part 3

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

So what’s in a prediction? Do predictions really matter? Do we just make predictions so that when they are right, we can brag to our friends? “I knew it, I told you so! Remember back in March when I said that the Nationals were going to finish last in the NL East? Yup, I predicted that.”

Way to go out on a limb.

And that’s another thing…do predictions have less value (or bragging rights) if you go with the majority? Are correct predictions impressive only when they are outlandish? Maybe you should only be able to brag about a correct prediction if you were made fun of when you made it?

“Get a load of this guy…he picked the New York Giants to win Super Bowl. What a joke. Did I miss the news that they traded Eli Manning for Peyton Manning?” I wish I could say I was the predictor, and not the ridiculer.

What about all of the predictions that were wrong? If we are going to reward outlandish predictions, shouldn’t we also hold people accountable for predictions that go terribly wrong? A few years ago Peter Gammons predicted that Bobby Crosby would win the AL MVP. Crosby hit .229 with 82 hits and 76 strikeouts. Gammons is a Hall of Famer, and well deserved, but shouldn’t he be held accountable for such a horrible prediction? He clearly followed the outlandish prediction rule so that he could be honored at the end of the season if it came true. And when it didn’t, nothing happened.

I feel like these incorrect outlandish predictions go the way of incorrect Super Bowl Champion t-shirts. They fade into the distance as if they never happened; yet someone out there is proudly sporting a 2008 New England Patriots Super Bowl Champions T-shirt.

So the moral of this story is that outlandish predictions are the way to go. Making outlandish predictions is a clear win-win situation. You get them right, and you have bragging rights for a year. You get the wrong and no one remembers.

PREDICTIONS*

AL EAST – 1) Boston Red Sox, 2) Tampa Bay Rays, 3) New York Yankees, 4) Toronto Blue Jays, 5) Baltimore Orioles

AL CENTRAL – 1) Cleveland Indians, 2) Detroit Tigers, 3) Minnesota Twins, 4) Chicago White Sox, 5) Kansas City Royals

AL WEST – 1) Los Angeles Angels, 2) Oakland Athletics, 3) Seattle Mariners, 4) Texas Rangers

NL EAST – 1) Atlanta Braves, 2) New York Mets, 3) Philadelphia Phillies, 4) Florida Marlins, 5)Washington Nationals

NL CENTRAL – 1) St. Louis Cardinals, 2) Houston Astros, 3) Chicago Cubs, 4) Cincinnati Reds, 5) Milwaukee Brewers, 6) Pittsburgh Pirates

NL WEST – 1) Los Angeles Dodgers, 2) Arizona Diamondbacks, 3) Colorado Rockies, 4) San Diego Padres, 5) San Francisco Giants

AL WILDCARD – Tampa Bay Rays

NL WILDCARD – Arizona Diamondbacks

ALDS – Boston over Los Angeles, Tampa Bay over Cleveland

NLDS – Los Angeles over Atlanta, Arizona over St. Louis

ALCS – Tampa Bay over Boston

NLCS – Arizona over Los Angeles

World Series – Tampa Bay over Arizona

“Like anyone would pick the Rays to win the World Series anyway.”

*I’m claiming the Outlandish Prediction Rule for these picks. Don’t hold me accountable if these are wrong. If they are right, you should expect to hear about it!