Prospects: College vs. Pro

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

In my last entry, I wrote about the range of ability. This time, I would like to build on that and illustrate how different portions of each player’s range are of interest to college coaches and professional scouts.

Scouts, college coaches and otherwise educated baseball people realize that over time a player will establish a range within which he will perform. They like to see a player at the top of his individual range (or at his potential), but most of the time he will be somewhere in the middle (or at the usable portion of his ability range).

For the most part, college coaches are more interested in usable ability while professional scouts are more interested in potential. I’ll explain that a little further, but a simple example may help to start with.

Pitcher XYZ threw his fastball between 82 and 87. Most of them clocked at 83-84, making that (on that day at least) his usable fastball. He hit 87 a few times, making that (at least for the purposes of this example) his potential fastball.

The report turned in by the college focused on Pitcher XYZ’s usable fastball. It would say if he had control, command, movement, and if those things helped him get outs at present. Though the college coach would like to believe that Pitcher XYZ will develop further, he has to recruit pitchers (and players) that can help his program win games as soon as possible. Why recruit a pitcher that is a few years away from impact than a guy he could plug in right away?

Meanwhile, the professional scout is looking at the top end of his fastball range (87 in this case) and trying to determine if that is his potential or if he has more. He will look at Pitcher XYZ’s body, both in terms of his present frame and potential for physical development and added strength. He will evaluate his arm action, both in terms of the specifics of his actual arm stroke and the speed or power with which he works it through release. He will evaluate his delivery, both to identify potential flaws and potential areas for improvement that may eventually enhance Pitcher XYZ’s fastball in terms of velocity and/or command.

The report turned in by the professional scout focused on Pitcher XYZ’s potential. If he didn’t think he had any potential, he wouldn’t even write a report – since he wouldn’t be a pro prospect in that case. If he had potential, the scout would assign a grade to the pitch to express what he thought it would be when the pitcher reached his potential.

I should point out that there are many college programs with excellent track records of developing players. There are many fine junior varsity situations that players can find if they do their research.

It should also be pointed out that no player can reach his potential without time and effort spent on development – this is the primary concept that minor league baseball is built on. As such, scouts find players with tools to play in the big leagues, assuming they will go through the development process in the minor leagues.

At the same time, college coaches find players with tools to play at their program, assuming whatever level of development they know a player will be exposed to in their program – among other things, this is one of the main reasons why one college will recruit a player while another one chooses to pass.


Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory. Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

Investing in the Future…

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?
I recently read a great chat with Jayson Stark from ESPN.com and Baseball America about the worst baseball free agent signings in the history of the game. The conversation came up after the San Francisco Giants announced that they were moving Barry Zito to the bullpen. In other words, the Giants may be paying Zito approx. $14.5 Million dollars in 2008 to be a lefty specialist out of the pen. I guess they do need someone to fill that role after getting rid of Steve Kline. Lefties did hit .318 against Kline in 2007. Zito has to be able to do better than that, right?

I won't hold my breath. Lefties are hitting .348 against Zito so far this year.

So if Zito truly is this bad, what prompted the Giants to pay $126 Million over seven years? How did they not see this coming? They had to have some good reasons, right? Well, here’s what I’ve come up with as potential reasons, or as we would now call them…Excuses:

1. When they signed Zito, he was 28. Many experts consider the years between 28 and 35 to be a pitcher’s prime. They’ve been battle tested, but haven’t killed their arm. They now have the best of both worlds: pitching ability and pitching knowledge, which can be a lethal combination.
   
   
2. His career ERA after the 2006 season was 3.55 (and that was in the AL). San Fran was moving him to the NL and another pitcher friendly park. AT&T Park ranked last in 2006 for homeruns allowed (the Oakland Coliseum was 24th).
   
   
3. He won 23 games in 2002 and took home the Cy Young award with a 2.75 ERA, showing that when on, he can be un-hittable.
   
   
4. Between 2001 and 2006 he made at least 34 starts throwing more than 210 innings each year. Now that’s consistent! What team wouldn’t want a lefty they can count on to pitch every fifth day for an entire season? And not just for one season, but for the next seven years.
   
   
5. According to a few sources, Zito plays the guitar, travels with his pillow and is as mellow as Jack Johnson off the field. What a great fit for the Bay Area.
   

So, can you really blame the Giants? They saw these positives and jumped on board. Hey, they were looking for a new face to the organization. From Barry (Bonds) to Barry (Zito), but with a lot less negative press. They saw this as a step in turning around the image and performance of the ball club.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t quite worked out. With Bonds, they looked naïve, turning a blind eye to an unnaturally enhanced slugger with an edgy personality…but he was always “just their Barry.” With Zito, they look like fools who completely missed the boat on a “proven ace” that now tops out at 84 MPH, can’t even get lefties out and is headed to the bullpen. Which is worse?

I expect to hear this statement from Bud Selig next year: “With the first pick, in the 2009 Amateur Baseball Draft, the San Francisco Giants select…Ryan Leaf, Quarterback, Washington State.”