Breaking Down the Major League Draft

Kelly Kulina: Your Link to the Colleges

I would like to take a moment to congratulate the following Exclusive Program Alumni on their recent selection in the 2008 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft:

-Michael McKenna (Rays, 14^th Round)
-Patrick Kantakevich (Orioles, 22^nd Round)
-Evan Bronson (Brewers, 36^th Round)
-Josh Hungerman (Colorado, 50^th Round)

I know I speak for everyone at the Baseball Factory when I wish you the very best of luck as you take on a career in professional baseball!

As you could probably tell, I’d like to spend this week’s entry discussing the Major League Draft. It’s an exciting time of the year, not only for players under consideration, but for fans of the game as well. Journalists across the US spend hours lauding the long-shot success storiescondemning the big busts. For players selected by a major league club, it represents the culmination of years of hard work, practice and determination. However, it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement and forget a few of the realities of the game we love.

Anybody who plays the game, no matter what they say, has a goal of making it to the Show. Just having the opportunity to be selected to play professional baseball is an honor and a privilege. But just how long of a shot is it? Check out this NCAA publication. Just to highlight:

-9.4%, or less than one in ten of NCAA baseball players will get drafted by a Major League Baseball team.
-0.45%, less than one in 200 of high school senior baseball players will be drafted.

Considering that less than 5% of all drafted players make it to the big leagues, those are incredible odds!

One reality that even baseball purists must recognize is that professional baseball is, first and foremost, a business. Players are considered investments and First-Year selections are made based on projections of those potential returns. How is this reflected in the draft?

Looking back at the last few years of the draft, there are a few noticeable trends I’d like you all to think about. In the first five rounds of the MLB draft in 2004-2008, 63% of players selected came from a college baseball background. Even in later rounds, this only dropped to 57%. So, a few thoughts to take from this:

-Professional baseball will spend the majority of its draft money on college players, especially in the earlier rounds.
-Professional clubs tend to view college players as better investments overall, judging from the fact that even in the later rounds, college players still comprise the majority of selections.
-Even if they are better players, high school prospects still tend to rank behind college players because they lack the track record of a college career.
-Major league scouts and clubs are more willing to invest in a college player based on their career in college. If they can find success at the college level, they are more likely to be taken in the draft over a raw high school player.
-Check back next week when I discuss the decision to go to college over taking on the life of a professional baseball player.


Kulina is a former Associate Head Coach and recruiting coordinator with the University of Maryland. As a former recruiting coordinator for ten years in the ACC, Kulina has vast contacts and is widely respected throughout the nation. From 1989 to 2000, Kulina coached 46 players who were selected in the MLB draft.

Draft Excitment

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

The draft is here! On Thursday, June 5, Major League Baseball will conduct its annual amateur draft. There are approximately 500,000 high school and 40,000 college baseball players, but only 1,500 players will be selected during the two days and 50 rounds of the draft. High school and college standouts will have their dreams realized as they begin their professional career in the minor leagues.

The experts have spent months and even years talking about the top players in the draft. They talk about tools guys. Immediate impact players. Players with signability issues. Can’t miss prospects. And even sleepers.

There are “old school” scouts that go on feel and instinct. “New school” statisticians that have read Moneyball at least 50 times. Big league clubs that lean toward college prospects they feel have a quicker trip to the Majors. Even Crosscheckers that prefer raw high school players with tools that they can mold through player development at the minor league level.

These players are analyzed and criticized on a daily basis. Broken down to the nth degree. Their intangibles are questioned. Can this 18-year-old kid handle the pressure? Is he going to get into too much trouble off the field? Will his curveball develop into an out pitch? Can he convert his 6.3 60-yard dash speed into 60 stolen bases?

These questions have to be considered, as do every other aspect of the player’s ability and character. Baseball is a business. These teams are making an investment. Just like buying stock, you need to do your homework. You can’t give a player a $4 Million signing bonus only to have him toil away in the minor leagues and never make it. The GM or Scouting Director that made that decision is probably not working with the team anymore. How many times do you hear about general managers on the hot seat? It happens daily for Brian Cashman.

This is an in-exact science. While it isn’t a shot in the dark, it also isn’t a 100% lock either. It is this uncertainty that makes the draft so exciting. Did my favorite team just draft the next Ken Griffey, Jr.? Or did they just select the next Matt Anderson? Who? Exactly! There goes the farm (system)!

For draft insight from our own expert, check out Steve Bernhardt’s interview at Nationals Park on the MLB.com Draft Preview Show.

Major League Baseball’s Amateur Draft

Steve Bernhardt: Building the Better Ballplayer

Major League Baseball’s Amateur Draft is set to take place next Thursday and Friday. This is an extremely exciting time for many young baseball players, as having their name called by a team next week gives them a chance to continue furthering their dream of playing in the Big Leagues.

For most people outside of the professional baseball community, the draft is a mystery. I field thousands of draft questions each year from players and parents at our Baseball Factory events. I won’t take this time to go through all of the rules and processes of the draft, but I do want to clear up one thing. You do not have to live in Florida, Texas or California or play in the College World Series to get drafted. Do a lot of players in those three states get selected? Yes. Do players from major DI schools get drafted? Yes, but along the lines of last week’s blog on different college levels – there are schools everywhere that are producing players selected in the draft.

Let’s take a quick look at the Boston Red Sox drafted players in 2007. In last year’s draft the Red Sox selected forty-seven players – twenty-five high school players and twenty-two college players. They drafted high school players from Long Beach, CA, Flower Mound, TX and Parkland, FL, but they also took players from high schools like St. Mary’s in Paducah, KY, Kalani in Honolulu, HI, Northwest Catholic in West Hartford, CT, Don Bosco Prep in Teaneck, NJ, Cheyenne Mountain in Colorado Springs, CO and Blue Springs in Blue Springs, MO among others. On the college side, they took players from well known schools like Rice, Oklahoma, Washington and Duke, but they also drafted quality players at LSU-Eunice, High Point, Northeastern, Edmonds CC in Washington, Trinidad State in Colorado, Dixie State College in Utah and Dominican College in New York.

I know – the Red Sox have the money to scout in all these places, but what about other teams? To compare, let’s look at an extremely low budget team, the Florida Marlins. Last year, the Marlins selected fifty players in the June draft. Eighteen of the fifty were high school players and the other thirty-two came from the collegiate ranks. The Marlins did select several high school players from California including their top two picks, but they also found talent in some interesting places. Their sixth rounder came from Oak Grove HS in Hattiesburg, MS while their seventh rounder played at Tremper High in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Add in some players from Louisiana, Oklahoma, Missouri and Georgia and it looks like the Marlins’ scouts see a good bit of the country as well. Of their college selections, they drafted players from schools like the University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma, Carson-Newman College, Kaskaskia JC in Illinois, Delta State and Itawamba CC both in Mississippi, Norfolk State in Virginia and Compton CC and JC of the Canyons in California.

As you can see, both teams scour the country to find the best talent. It is true that, with very few exceptions, if you can play – they will find you. One thing these players do have in common is that they PLAYED. You don’t see many teams draft players who sit on the bench. Go to a place – no matter where it is - where you can play, and if you have the talent your name will be called during a future ML Draft.