Prospects: College vs. Pro

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

In my last entry, I wrote about the range of ability. This time, I would like to build on that and illustrate how different portions of each player’s range are of interest to college coaches and professional scouts.

Scouts, college coaches and otherwise educated baseball people realize that over time a player will establish a range within which he will perform. They like to see a player at the top of his individual range (or at his potential), but most of the time he will be somewhere in the middle (or at the usable portion of his ability range).

For the most part, college coaches are more interested in usable ability while professional scouts are more interested in potential. I’ll explain that a little further, but a simple example may help to start with.

Pitcher XYZ threw his fastball between 82 and 87. Most of them clocked at 83-84, making that (on that day at least) his usable fastball. He hit 87 a few times, making that (at least for the purposes of this example) his potential fastball.

The report turned in by the college focused on Pitcher XYZ’s usable fastball. It would say if he had control, command, movement, and if those things helped him get outs at present. Though the college coach would like to believe that Pitcher XYZ will develop further, he has to recruit pitchers (and players) that can help his program win games as soon as possible. Why recruit a pitcher that is a few years away from impact than a guy he could plug in right away?

Meanwhile, the professional scout is looking at the top end of his fastball range (87 in this case) and trying to determine if that is his potential or if he has more. He will look at Pitcher XYZ’s body, both in terms of his present frame and potential for physical development and added strength. He will evaluate his arm action, both in terms of the specifics of his actual arm stroke and the speed or power with which he works it through release. He will evaluate his delivery, both to identify potential flaws and potential areas for improvement that may eventually enhance Pitcher XYZ’s fastball in terms of velocity and/or command.

The report turned in by the professional scout focused on Pitcher XYZ’s potential. If he didn’t think he had any potential, he wouldn’t even write a report – since he wouldn’t be a pro prospect in that case. If he had potential, the scout would assign a grade to the pitch to express what he thought it would be when the pitcher reached his potential.

I should point out that there are many college programs with excellent track records of developing players. There are many fine junior varsity situations that players can find if they do their research.

It should also be pointed out that no player can reach his potential without time and effort spent on development – this is the primary concept that minor league baseball is built on. As such, scouts find players with tools to play in the big leagues, assuming they will go through the development process in the minor leagues.

At the same time, college coaches find players with tools to play at their program, assuming whatever level of development they know a player will be exposed to in their program – among other things, this is one of the main reasons why one college will recruit a player while another one chooses to pass.


Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory. Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

The Range of Ability

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

Baseball players, especially amateurs, are not robots capable of repeating physical movements exactly the same way each time. Instead, they are human beings that have to work and practice to try and achieve some level of consistency.

With most skills, we accept the fact that the difficulty of the game does not allow us to always be successful. Whether it’s at the plate, in the field, or on the mound, we realize that even the best and most talented do not perform to their potential every time.

However, when it comes to hot button measures of skills like running times and pitch velocities, most people think they are robots. Before we get more into them however, let’s look at a couple of other scenarios.

Hitters should be somewhat familiar with a back panel tee drill. Tee up a high strike in the middle of the plate, and take ten swings with the goal of producing ten line drives into the back panel of the cage net. If you haven’t done this before, you should. After working on it, think about how many you can get out of your round of ten. Assuming you don’t change the tee height or position, the only thing that changes with each pass is your swing. How well can you repeat it?
Pitchers should be familiar with throwing to very specific locations during bullpen sessions - fastballs low and away, in and off the plate, along with similarly appropriate locations for secondary pitches. Much like above, if you don’t push yourself in your workouts you never really get better. Think about your ability to throw up to five consecutive fastballs to a particular spot, then think about breaking balls or changeups. As long as the target stays the same, the only thing that changes from pitch to pitch is your delivery. How well can you repeat it?

Most players, and pitchers alike, will have varied success. Sometimes they can go 8 for 10 on the back panel drill, or throw 5 fastballs in a row low and away. Other times they back panel 4 of 10, or hit their spot no more than twice in a row. However, we accept this and try to get better. Hitting and pitching are both difficult after all.

Now, think about running times. What’s your best 60-yard dash? Do you think you run that time regularly? What’s your worst? Having stood at the end of the 60 track with a stopwatch and/or a clipboard many times, I can tell you that most players (and parents) are shocked if the time is less than what they know to be their (or their son’s) best. The timer must have started early, or stopped late, or the track is slow, or we ran into the wind…

Same thing with velocity. The radar gun must not be working right, or it was at too much of an angle, or it must have been read wrong…

Why? If we can’t repeat ten swings off a tee, why do we think we should run 60-yards the same every time? If we can’t hit a spot five times in a row with a fastball, why do we think we should throw it the same speed every time?

We need to realize that these things vary, just as everything else does. Just like with the back panel drill, or execution of pitches in a bullpen session, players will perform within a range of ability. Sometimes they will be at the top, sometimes at the bottom, but most of the time somewhere in the middle.


Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory. Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

Performance vs Ability

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

“Why are all the scouts here to watch ______ (insert that guy on your team’s name here)? I’m hitting .500, and he isn’t even hitting .300. They should be watching me instead.”

Answer? Tools (no, not those over there...)

Having a .500 batting average does not necessarily mean a hitter has exceptional hitting ability. Now, don’t get me wrong, that is pretty darn good…we’d certainly all like to have guys on our team hitting .500.

This is basically the performance versus ability debate. I don’t have any interest in boring you with this, you’ve heard it before I'm sure. Instead, we’ll make it as simple as it really is. Tools are the ability, production is the performance. Ideally we would have both, but that doesn’t happen very often. There, easy as that. Make sense?

Though the ability to produce in games is the ultimate goal, the ability to produce at the high school level alone is not a sure sign that a player can or will produce at the college level (and certainly not at the professional level).

There is simply no way to account for a standard level of competition at the high school level. Since there is no baseline, there is really no way to compare players using most statistics (like batting average and earned run average). Thus, arguments based on these numbers are not even worth having.

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TODAY’S DOUBLE PLAY
Two more baseball pet peeves (I have lots...)

1. When outfielders throw to the wrong base, don’t know where to throw it, or throw over cutoff men.
Come on, let’s be honest here. All you really have to do as an outfielder is listen, and you’ll know where to go with the ball. Sure, it helps to have some feel for the game – that is always ideal – but in most cases, just throw it to the cutoff man. Trust me, he is there for a reason. Oh, and one more thing. On a sac fly (or any other do or die type throw) if you can’t carry it there in the air (most guys can’t, it’s OK), at least give your teammate a long hop to work with.

2. Striking out looking on fastballs away.
Maybe it’s just how I was taught, but I just don’t get how it happens so often. I know there are differing opinions, but I am of the theory that it is best to “look away, react in”…ESPECIALLY WITH TWO STRIKES. In other words, make sure you can handle pitches on the outer half, and simply react and try to fight off pitchers on the inner half.

A two strike approach should also involve choking up on the bat, and widening the stance – both help to shorten and simplify the stroke, making it easier to simply put the ball in play. If a pitcher can run a fastball across the inside corner and freeze me that way, I’ll tip my cap and have a seat – but seriously, think about it, there are just not that many pitchers that pitch inside AT ALL, let alone with two strikes. If I am looking away, it allows me to track the ball longer – since I am trying to hit the ball out of the back of the strike zone. That way, I have time to recognize spin on a breaking ball or at least fight off a pitch I think has a chance to be called a strike.
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But if not stats, then what else do we have to compare players with?

Answer? (Hint: same as last time) Tools.

I know what you’re thinking…“but what about that guy on my team that hits balls over the lights in batting practice? He hasn’t done much of anything in games this season, but scouts and coaches are always coming to see him play. Same with the pitcher on our team that throws 90. He doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, and gives up quite a few runs in each outing. If they can’t help our team win games, why would scouts and coaches want them for theirs?”

Answer: (Seeing a pattern yet? If not you will if you read the next word) Tools.

There simply are not that many guys walking around that can hit balls over the lights. Tools like that are rare, and give players potential to impact games in a big way.

For example, if that light tower power ever ends up in the same package with a good swing and hitting approach, that player has potential to hit a lot of home runs in the Major Leagues.

Back to production (we switched to that term instead of performance earlier) one last time before we wrap up. It is important to note that the ability to play the game is considered particularly important to most college recruiters (compared to professional scouts, who are looking more into the future). They do not have the luxury of letting players learn how to use their tools in the minor leagues before calling them up into action.

So, while we cannot deny production and performance as ideal for any player, ultimately the players with more in the tool box are always going to be scouted more. They may look a little crude now, and maybe they aren’t having all that much success right now, but those big tools give them more potential to play the game longer and against better players in the long run.

Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory.

Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.