Down the Stretch They Come

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

With a little over 20 games remaining in the Major League Baseball season, let's take a look at the races, especially those that are heating up:

American League East
After losing two of three against the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays are only 3.5 games ahead of the Red Sox. While they are looking very good to make the playoffs, a division title could be a huge difference maker when the playoffs start. While the division winner will draw either the White Sox or the Twins, the Wild Card team is going to have to face the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (I still have a tough time not calling them just Anaheim). I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather have to face Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez than John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders.

The Yankees are 11 back of the Rays in the division and 7.5 games back of the Red Sox in the Wild Card. Stranger things have happened (see last year’s run by the Clint Hurdle and the Rockies), but let’s just think about it this way: If the Red Sox finished the season losing 15 of their final 23 games, the Yankees would need to go 16-6 down the stretch to make the playoffs. If the Red Sox go 11-12, the Yankees would have to go 19-3.

American League Central
I’ll be interested to see how many Twins fans vote for Senator John McCain this fall in the presidential election, if they end up missing out on the playoffs. McCain (image below and to the left) was seen waiving good bye to the Twins' playoff chances. I jest, but the Twins were sent packing on a 14-game road trip because of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, MN. They finished 5-9 on the road trip and may have lost the momentum needed to overtake the White Sox, who have a 1.5 game lead in the AL Central. The Twins schedule down the stretch looks promising with home series against Detroit, Kansas City (six games) and the White Sox in late September. They do however have to hit the road again including a three game series in Cleveland (18-7 over their last 25 games) and a four game series in Tampa Bay.

The White Sox host the Angels, Toronto, Detroit and Cleveland, while making trips to New York, Kansas City, and Minnesota. Neither team seems to have an edge, and with only 1.5 games separating the teams, that late series in Minnesota could determine the division title.

American League West
The Angels had this locked up in May. Seriously, I’m not kidding. At this point they hold a slim, 17 game lead over the Rangers.

American League Wild Card
We talked about what the Yankees would need to do to catch the Red Sox, but what about the Twins. They have a bit better chance, but again, with a 5.5 game lead over the Twins the Sox would basically need to collapse. It could happen, but don’t count on it.

National League East
Things are eerily similar to last year. The Mets have a lead and are growing it, but injuries to Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Billy Wagner are definitely a cause for concern. Can the Mets hold on? They’ve won four in a row and seven of their last 10, but the Phillies are very much alive only three games out of the lead. This weekend will be key as the Phillies make their last ever visit to Shea Stadium. This is the last time the Mets and Phillies will square off during the season, so this could determine the winner of the division.

National League Central
The Cubs have lost five in a row, but still have a five game lead in the NL Central. It definitely helps that the Brewers have lost four in a row. With Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden both missing starts, Cubs fans are a bit on edge, but they should make the playoffs. The Cubs and Brewers will face off six times down the stretch, including the final series of the regular season in Milwaukee, giving the Brewers a chance at overtaking the division title.

National League West
Arizona holds a 1.5 game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers going into their three game weekend series that starts tonight in LA. This is the last time the Diamondbacks and Dodgers will face off this season and it will likely provide one team with momentum for the remainder of September. However, the Rockies are still lurking, only six games back of Arizona. They have nine games left against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers and considering the run they made in 2007, nothing is out of the question.

National League Wild Card
Milwaukee is currently sitting four games up on Philly, five on St. Louis and six on Houston. The Brewers will head to Philadelphia in a week for a four game series. If they are still only up by four, this could get interesting. St. Louis has put together a magical season and they will need some of that magic in order to get into the playoffs. Houston was written off for dead earlier this summer but they have gone 20-7 over their past 27 games and have put themselves back in the Wild Card Race. Jumping over three teams during the final three weeks of the season will be a challenge, but 16 of their final 22 games are against teams with losing records, so don’t count them out.

Since I love to make predictions:

AL East – Boston Red Sox
AL Central – Chicago White Sox
AL West – Anaheim
AL Wild Card – Tampa Bay Rays

NL East – Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central – Chicago Cubs
NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card – Milwaukee Brewers


Jason Budden is the Vice President of Operations and Marketing at Baseball Factory. Jason joined the Baseball Factory in 1997 while still a junior in high school. After going through the Baseball Factory's college recruiting program he was placed at Johns Hopkins University where he played two years of college baseball before graduating with a degree in Economics. After working part-time at the Factory throughout college, Jason joined the team as a full-time employee in January 2002 when he was promoted to Director of Marketing. He currently oversees all marketing projects and sponsorship opportunities at Baseball Factory. He is also in charge of development and marketing for Baseball University, the leader in online baseball education and a division of Baseball Factory.