Draft Excitment

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

The draft is here! On Thursday, June 5, Major League Baseball will conduct its annual amateur draft. There are approximately 500,000 high school and 40,000 college baseball players, but only 1,500 players will be selected during the two days and 50 rounds of the draft. High school and college standouts will have their dreams realized as they begin their professional career in the minor leagues.

The experts have spent months and even years talking about the top players in the draft. They talk about tools guys. Immediate impact players. Players with signability issues. Can’t miss prospects. And even sleepers.

There are “old school” scouts that go on feel and instinct. “New school” statisticians that have read Moneyball at least 50 times. Big league clubs that lean toward college prospects they feel have a quicker trip to the Majors. Even Crosscheckers that prefer raw high school players with tools that they can mold through player development at the minor league level.

These players are analyzed and criticized on a daily basis. Broken down to the nth degree. Their intangibles are questioned. Can this 18-year-old kid handle the pressure? Is he going to get into too much trouble off the field? Will his curveball develop into an out pitch? Can he convert his 6.3 60-yard dash speed into 60 stolen bases?

These questions have to be considered, as do every other aspect of the player’s ability and character. Baseball is a business. These teams are making an investment. Just like buying stock, you need to do your homework. You can’t give a player a $4 Million signing bonus only to have him toil away in the minor leagues and never make it. The GM or Scouting Director that made that decision is probably not working with the team anymore. How many times do you hear about general managers on the hot seat? It happens daily for Brian Cashman.

This is an in-exact science. While it isn’t a shot in the dark, it also isn’t a 100% lock either. It is this uncertainty that makes the draft so exciting. Did my favorite team just draft the next Ken Griffey, Jr.? Or did they just select the next Matt Anderson? Who? Exactly! There goes the farm (system)!

For draft insight from our own expert, check out Steve Bernhardt’s interview at Nationals Park on the MLB.com Draft Preview Show.