Get the Trophies and Banners Ready – Part 3

Jason Budden: Un-Common Sense?

So what’s in a prediction? Do predictions really matter? Do we just make predictions so that when they are right, we can brag to our friends? “I knew it, I told you so! Remember back in March when I said that the Nationals were going to finish last in the NL East? Yup, I predicted that.”

Way to go out on a limb.

And that’s another thing…do predictions have less value (or bragging rights) if you go with the majority? Are correct predictions impressive only when they are outlandish? Maybe you should only be able to brag about a correct prediction if you were made fun of when you made it?

“Get a load of this guy…he picked the New York Giants to win Super Bowl. What a joke. Did I miss the news that they traded Eli Manning for Peyton Manning?” I wish I could say I was the predictor, and not the ridiculer.

What about all of the predictions that were wrong? If we are going to reward outlandish predictions, shouldn’t we also hold people accountable for predictions that go terribly wrong? A few years ago Peter Gammons predicted that Bobby Crosby would win the AL MVP. Crosby hit .229 with 82 hits and 76 strikeouts. Gammons is a Hall of Famer, and well deserved, but shouldn’t he be held accountable for such a horrible prediction? He clearly followed the outlandish prediction rule so that he could be honored at the end of the season if it came true. And when it didn’t, nothing happened.

I feel like these incorrect outlandish predictions go the way of incorrect Super Bowl Champion t-shirts. They fade into the distance as if they never happened; yet someone out there is proudly sporting a 2008 New England Patriots Super Bowl Champions T-shirt.

So the moral of this story is that outlandish predictions are the way to go. Making outlandish predictions is a clear win-win situation. You get them right, and you have bragging rights for a year. You get the wrong and no one remembers.

PREDICTIONS*

AL EAST – 1) Boston Red Sox, 2) Tampa Bay Rays, 3) New York Yankees, 4) Toronto Blue Jays, 5) Baltimore Orioles

AL CENTRAL – 1) Cleveland Indians, 2) Detroit Tigers, 3) Minnesota Twins, 4) Chicago White Sox, 5) Kansas City Royals

AL WEST – 1) Los Angeles Angels, 2) Oakland Athletics, 3) Seattle Mariners, 4) Texas Rangers

NL EAST – 1) Atlanta Braves, 2) New York Mets, 3) Philadelphia Phillies, 4) Florida Marlins, 5)Washington Nationals

NL CENTRAL – 1) St. Louis Cardinals, 2) Houston Astros, 3) Chicago Cubs, 4) Cincinnati Reds, 5) Milwaukee Brewers, 6) Pittsburgh Pirates

NL WEST – 1) Los Angeles Dodgers, 2) Arizona Diamondbacks, 3) Colorado Rockies, 4) San Diego Padres, 5) San Francisco Giants

AL WILDCARD – Tampa Bay Rays

NL WILDCARD – Arizona Diamondbacks

ALDS – Boston over Los Angeles, Tampa Bay over Cleveland

NLDS – Los Angeles over Atlanta, Arizona over St. Louis

ALCS – Tampa Bay over Boston

NLCS – Arizona over Los Angeles

World Series – Tampa Bay over Arizona

“Like anyone would pick the Rays to win the World Series anyway.”

*I’m claiming the Outlandish Prediction Rule for these picks. Don’t hold me accountable if these are wrong. If they are right, you should expect to hear about it!