Work the Count - Take a Strike: Part 2
Matt Schilling: From the Batting CageLast week I wrote about the two quotes mentioned in the title: "Work the Count" and "Take a Strike." I commented that I did not like these comments because they were misleading and incomplete. The fact is that the more balls and the less strikes that you have, the better off you are. AND the first pitch of an at-bat is in fact a VERY good pitch to hit. I based a lot of these facts off the statistics of Major League hitters last season and of other seasons that I have researched. I used the following chart which I showed last week and I will show again this week:
Batting average by count for all MLB players in 2007:
0-0 = .344
1-0 = .3412-0 = .351
3-0 = .3940-1 = .324
1-1 = .3272-1 = .338
3-1 = .3680-2 = .166
1-2 = .1782-2 = .195
3-2 = .233As you can see, when hitters have two strikes on them they are not very successful. When they swing in non two strike counts, they have much greater success. At the end of last weeks blog I left you with a question. What count do you think gives up the most homeruns? My guess would have been 2-0 or 3-1, traditionally great hitters counts. The answer: 0-0.
WOW! This answer blew me away, but it does make sense. For one thing, every hitter is guaranteed to have a 0-0 count every at-bat. But the other reason is that big league hitters have figured out something that pitching coaches all over the world don't want hitters to know.
ALL PITCHERS ARE TAUGHT TO GET AHEAD OF THE HITTER!
Sorry to yell but this is so obvious. No pitching coach teaches his pitcher to fall behind (look at the chart above for the obvious reason). So if as a hitter you know the pitcher is trying his best to throw a strike with the first pitch, why on earth would you want to take it? Chances are high that you will get a strike, and if you swing at strikes you have a much better chance to hit.
I once went to a baseball clinic and heard a very well respected Division I baseball coach speak on pitching. For 30 minutes he went on and on regarding the importance of getting ahead of the hitter and throwing strike one. After a 15 minute break he then spoke on hitting and preached the importance of working the count deep and taking pitches. To me this made no sense. Clearly this guy must have been a pitcher at heart. Why on earth would you tell hitters to take strikes if you are telling pitchers to throw strikes early? Am I missing something?
The truth of the matter is that teams who see a lot of balls and lay off bad pitches are very successful. The Yankees and Red Sox are great at this. Rarely do you see their hitters swing at bad pitches. As a result they do work the count, by taking balls, not strikes. Their hitters get themselves into advantage counts ( 1-0, 2-0, 3-1, 2-1) a lot. That is working the count the right way.
For fun I thought that I would rattle off a few more facts for you that you might find interesting.
Again these are based on the 2007 MLB season and were found at Baseball Reference:
- The best count for hitting home runs was 0-0 giving up 853 dingers.
- The next closest count was 1-0 giving up 615. (clearly swinging early helps)
- Worst count was 0-2 with only 173 round trippers.
- 0-0 count gave up the most doubles, triples, homers and RBI's.
- The next most productive count in all those categories was 1-1.
- When a pitcher got ahead of a hitter 0-1 they struck out 21,644 batters! (now you know why pitchers want to throw strike one and why I am so against taking a strike)
- In contrast when the pitcher fell behind 1-0 they were only able to K 10,545 batters.
Matt Schilling is the Senior Director of On-Field Instruction at Baseball Factory, Schilling handles all on-field elements, including one-on-one training.
Schilling graduated from Coastal Carolina University, where he was an All-Conference and All-State player while being voted the fourth best second baseman in the country by the Smith Award Group. Schilling went on to coach at Coastal for five years, helping them reach the top 25. He is also a former Associate Scout with the Atlanta Braves.
Labels: Baseball, batting average, count hitting, matt schilling, stats
posted by Dave Lax at
11:01 AM 
3 Comments:
I know this is months late, but . . .
Your statistical analysis is beyond awful.
Of course a player's BA will be lower when he has 2 strikes vs. other counts. Here's why:
BA=hits/ABs.
With less than 2 strikes, there are 4 ways to register an AB: get a hit, put the ball in play for an out, get on by an error, or get on by a fielder's choice.
On the other hand, there are 5 ways to register an AB in a 2 strike count: the 4 ways noted above, plus striking out!
See, since it's impossible to strike out with less than 2 strikes, a swing and a miss or taking a strike in one of those counts doesn't register an AB, while it not only registers an AB with 2 strikes, it registers an AB without a hit, which lowers one's batting average. Put another way, BA by count with less than 2 strikes only really measures balls put in play/hits, while BA by count with 2 strikes measures balls put in play + strikeouts/ hits.
This explains why BAs with 2 strikes are much lower than BAs with less than 2 strikes, not your embarrassingly flawed conclusion that hitters are simply worse when they have 2 strikes on them. In fact, if you look at balls put in play for each count, you'll see that the numbers are not very different for each count.
dll111,
Interesting post. Lets analyze it a little bit. The jist of my blogs on this topic is that hitters are more successful when they avoid 2 strike counts. They take better, more aggressive swings and have a better chance to hit the ball hard and thus get hits when they avoid 2 strike counts. The pitcher is much more predictable and tends to pitch more in the zone rather than near the zone.
Yes there are 4 ways to register an at bat with less than two strikes and yes there are 5 ways with two strikes. As a hitter I would like to swing at pitches when I have a 1 in 4 chance of something good happening rather than a 1 in 5 chance. In order to do that, I must avoid 2 strike counts right. I am taking the 5th possible option(the strikeout) out of the equation. I am giving the pitcher 1 less way of getting me out. Isnt that the point of hitting.
Everything you said in your next paragraph about it being impossible to strike out with less then two strikes on you is exactly right, no argument there. In fact it drives home my entire point. Thank you.
As for your last two sentences. Hitters ARE worse with two strikes for a number of reasons. The pitcher can be less predictable, the hitter expands the zone because he must protect anything close, the pitcher can exploit the hitter because he knows he must protect anything close, etc, etc....... And yes because if he swings and misses in a two strike count it registers as an out. ALL THE MORE REASON TO AVOID BEING IN A TWO STRIKE COUNT, which as I have stated, is the point of the blog. Your last sentence is my favorite......."if you look at balls put in play for each count, you'll see that the numbers are not very different for each count." Well yeah, but you are assuming that hitters put the ball in play with two strikes just as much as they do when they don't have two strikes. Talk about an embarrassingly flawed conclusion! Check out this data, again from baseball reference.com and again based on the 2007 season. These numbers are based on what hitters did AFTER each count, not in each count.
After 0-2 count hitters put the ball in play %57 of the time.
After 1-2 count hitters put the ball in play %60 of the time.
After 2-2 count hitters put the ball in play %63 of the time
in contrast,
After 1-0 count hitters put the ball in play %84 of the time
After 2-0 count hitters put the ball in play %86 of the time
After 0-1 count hitters put the ball in play %74 of the time
After 1-1 was %76 of the time
and After 2-1 was %79 of the time
So what does this all mean, IF YOU WANT TO HAVE BETTER SUCCESS AS A HITTER AVOID HITTING IN TWO STRIKE COUNTS.
Clearly you were trying to shoot holes in my conclusions and clearly you have done a poor job, in fact you have only driven my point home even more. Not really sure what your conclusions are since you didnt state any. Next time lose the sarcasm and the smart talk and say something worth while.
Just last night my husband and I were discussing our son's latest hitting philosophy; take the first pitch. He's a top of the order batter and for the last 2 tournaments has been lead off or second batter. While his obp is high (hit by pitch and walks) his bat. average is fairly low, he is looking at too many stikes. Now I'm just a mom, but I shared with my son how it didn't make sense that he was watching the first pitch. He said it was his "philosophy." I know there are those who want the lead off batter to take the first strike, but I never bought into that. Why watch a beautiful in your zone pitch go by? Proving my thoughts, my son's average is lower.
All of that to say this. During our conversation last night I asked my husband if he remembered that blog about taking the strike? He said I should look it up and print it out for our son to read again. When I opened it I found it interesting that there had been a comment expressing, I think, opposition to swinging at the first pitch.
My son read the article and now concedes that maybe his "mom" might have had a point! Thank you Matt!!
As just a mom, I am hardly qualified to enter this baseball debate, but this is my life's philosophy: "How's it working for you so far?" It doesn't matter whether it's relationships, business or baseball, if what you are doing isn't giving you the results you want--it's time to re-think your approach. It's been said, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over the same way but expecting different results!"
Love this blog!
Baseball Mom
Riverside, California
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