What's in a number?

Andy Ferguson: Another Day, Another Double Play

If you ask someone about a pitcher, what is usually the first part of the answer?

In my experience, it is almost always velocity. I’m not saying that is right or wrong, only that at least initially most of us let the radar gun evaluate all pitchers.

Just the other day, I asked a friend about a pitcher we’re following for the upcoming Under Armour All America Game (date and location to be announced soon by the way…). His reply, “he was 86-87 today, but our guys have seen him 88-91”.

About a month ago, I spoke with a different friend about a pitcher we had both seen on different occasions. I said, “I saw him up to 96, and he pitched around 91”. He said, “I saw him up to 94, and I know scouts that have seen him stay above 91 for a whole game”.

We all do it. Scouts, coaches, moms, dads, players, hot dog vendors…we all spout velocity first when talking about pitchers. Is it for frame of reference, or so we can start on some kind of common ground that we all understand? Or is it because starting with anything else means we don’t like a guy?

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COMMON 20-80 SCOUTING SCALE FOR FASTBALL VELOCITY
Grade: Descriptions (based on Major League standards): Velocity
80: Excellent: 98+
70: Outstanding: 96-97
60: Well Above Average: 94-95
55: Solid Average: 92-93
50: Major League Average: 90-91
45: Near Average: 88-89
40: Below Average: 86-87
30: Well Below Average: 83-85
20: Poor: 82-
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Another example: “Hey Andy, what did you think of that tall right hander you saw the other night”?

My reply, ”I liked the way his arm worked. His delivery was athletic and repeatable, so he had no trouble finding a consistent release point – rare for any young pitcher, but especially a tall and lanky one. He threw a lot of strikes with both his fastball and his secondary pitches, and moved the ball around the zone very well”.

Does my answer mean that I didn’t like the pitcher I saw? No, of course not. After all, my comments contained information on what he pitched on top of, along with indicators that he can actually pitch. Isn't that what we should be talking about?

Now, instead of starting with what I liked about that pitcher, what if I started with velocity?

“He was 80-82”.

Would you have read the rest of the report? Probably not. But why? The ability to throw strikes with off speed pitches makes 80-82 seem like 90 sometimes. Now consider the ability to locate that fastball...it is effectively even better isn't it? So why are we hung up on the numbers so much?

Now, what if it said:

“He was 88-92”.

Would you have cared about the rest of the report? Probably not. What if the rest of the report said "he was all over the place, his arm worked awful, his delivery never looked the same twice in a row, he threw changeups behind hitters and bounced every curveball".

Still liking that number now? I'm not, and you shouldn't. And it didn't take a radar gun to figure that out, all you had to do was watch him pitch.

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TODAY’S DOUBLE PLAY
My top baseball pet peeves

1. Catcher mound visits following a pitching change, or when a runner reaches second base.
This one kills me every time I see it. Has he never caught this pitcher before? What other reason could there be that he doesn’t know what pitches he throws? What do guys do in bullpens these days? What would I know, I only caught what seemed like several million of ‘em…Last time I checked, 1 for fastball, 2 for curveball, wiggle for a change. Am I wrong? As for a runner reaching second base…there isn’t time to talk about signs before the game? That way maybe the middle infielders can be aware also?

2. Errors on pickoff attempts.
How many times have you seen it? A guy like me is on first base (who could only steal a bag by pulling it out of the ground and running off the field, like Lloyd McClendon in picture at left), and the pitcher throws over like seven times. Eventually, one is going to get away from the first baseman. Why??? Everyone knows I’m not going to run, so why bother? Nope, you’re right…just give me the base by throwing it off the tarp down the right field line. Oh look, the catcher is coming out to the mound to give the pitcher the new signs…
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So, what’s in a number? In my opinion, a lot more than there should be. Now, don’t go and tell your friends that Andy Ferguson says velocity isn’t important. Of course it is, and for obvious reasons. What I am trying to say is that anyone can sit behind and radar gun and then tell you what pitchers they like.

Remind you of our friend the stopwatch from last week? The mechanical scout, available at stores nationwide…

Andy Ferguson is currently the Senior Director of Baseball Operations with the Baseball Factory.

Ferguson joined the North Carolina State baseball team as a walk-on, and went on to solidify his role on a team that participated in four consecutive NCAA Regionals. He later coached with the Harwich Mariners of the Cape Cod Baseball League, and then served as an Associate Scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.